xAI: I’m all in, $80 billion? OpenAI: I raise you to $300 billion.

Welcome to AI Collision 💥,

In today’s collision between AI and our world:

• Elon’s $80 billion, Altman’s $300 billion
• The Mega IPO is upon us
• My old Newsmax days

If that’s enough to get the IPOs flooding the market, read on…

AI Collision 💥

As I wrote to you yesterday, thanks to the takeover of X.com by xAI, the latter now has a rough valuation in the ballpark of $80 billion.

Not bad for a company that’s only two years old.

But what’s $80 billion when you’re worth $300 billion?

We’ve covered the ongoing tit-for-tat between AI juggernaut personalities Elon Musk and Sam Altman for a while. But they both just upped the ante because merely days after xAI got its newfound valuation, OpenAI closes a deal for more funding that give it a valuation of $300 billion.

Welcome to the AI market in 2025.

First thing to note though is OpenAI’s valuation has surged to $300 billion thanks to $40 billion from SoftBank Group and other investors.

The investment is structured in two phases: an initial $10 billion infusion, followed by an additional $30 billion contingent upon OpenAI’s transition to a for-profit entity by the end of the year. Much of this transition is why Musk often refers to Altman as, “Scam Altman”.

A $300 billion valuation for a company that has only just recently begun monetising its products might raise eyebrows. However, OpenAI’s trajectory suggests a transformative impact across all kinds of industry.

So, its positioning is not just a software entity but as a foundational platform for AI. Its strategic partnerships, notably with Microsoft (albeit that is apparently softening) and its pioneering role in AI research and application, lend some tangibility to its giant valuation.

The thing playing on my mind though, is that if Softbank is pumping in $40 billion, and the view is that a big chunk of that comes as OpenAI becomes, “for-profit” then surely Softbank will want to cash in on that at some point.

Is an OpenAI IPO on the cards in late 2025, or 2026?

It’s very likely. And I say that because we’ve seen a couple of IPOs in the last week that suggest the mega IPO is going to become a “thing” in 2025.

Take a look at this:

CoreWeave listed on Monday.

Based on reports leading into the IPO,

The cloud provider sold 37.5 million shares at $40 each. It had initially planned to sell 49 million shares at $47 to $55 each, but a weaker-than-expected stock market posed difficulties for the company.

I don’t know about you, but that chart doesn’t look like “difficulties” to me.

Then, there’s this chart:

Newsmax is a media company, they own media assets like the One America News Network. I’ve actually been on OANN before, many years ago talking about tech and crypto:

Anyway, Newsmax also launched their IPO on Monday. The opening price of the stock?

$10.

Yes you read that right, and yes the number $233 on the chart is also correct.

$10 to $233 dollars in two days.

For a legacy media company.

That gives Newsmax a $20 billion valuation. And CoreWeave is now up to $25 billion.

I think the success so far of these two in a few days is a clear signal…

2025 is shaping up to be the year of the mega IPO.

Figure Robotics is coming in hot, with Microsoft and OpenAI already backing their humanoid ambitions.

Anduril, the defense-tech juggernaut, has been quietly racking up contracts and now looks ready to explode into public markets.

Cerebras Systems, the ambitious AI chip maker claiming to be faster, better and more efficient that anything Nvidia has to offer.

Starlink? Practically built to IPO.

Even SpaceX could ride the wave.

And then, OpenAI.

These aren’t just tech companies; they’re platforms for the next industrial age. From AI to defence, robotics and space commerce, it does very much feel like we’re entering a new industrial age, and it’s these companies that are going to dominate for the next 30 years.

The signs are there, and I’m expecting some mega IPO numbers in the coming months. Some might just be the best investment you make for the next decade.

The Biggest IPO in history is coming

2024 shattered IPO records, with companies like Reddit and Stripe creating billions in wealth. But nothing compares to what could be coming next. One potential IPO, valued at $180 billion, could deliver the largest one-day stock market gain in history. And with this “backdoor” strategy, there’s a way you could position yourself to potentially profit before it goes public.

Capital at risk.

Busters & Busters 💰

AI and AI-related stocks moving and shaking up the markets this week. (All performance data below over the rolling week).

***not many green lights on our watchlist today, so it’s back to busters and busters again***

Bust 📉

• Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) down 3%
• Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) down 5%
• Tower Semiconductor (NASDAQ:TSEM) down 6%

Bust 📉

• Meta (NASDAQ:META) down 7%
• Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) down 7%
• Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) down 9%

From the hive mind 🧠

• Amazon is betting big on AI Agents to be the engine behind Alexa’s usefulness in the home. I think it’s a bold, but very smart play. And this is how they’re going to do it.
• While we’re also on the subject of massive valuations and funding rounds, here’s $600 million for Google’s spin-out, Isomorphic Labs.
• ChatGPT launched and grew one million users in five days. Well guess what, they just added another million users…this time…in just one HOUR.

Artificial Polltelligence 🗳️

Weirdest AI image of the day

ChatGPT’s random quote of the day

Thanks for reading, and don’t forget to leave comments and questions below,

Sam Volkering

Editor-in-Chief

AI Collision